It's largely written with keeping in view some normal retail investor in mind who wants to invest with some stock market fund or adviser in India. It further assumes managing lot of funds (funds of funds) or stock markets is nowhere your full time job. • This is a decision making framework. • Its made … Continue reading Decision Making Framework for Investing with a Stock Market Fund or Adviser
Large vs Small decisions
The process of taking large investments is widely different from making small ones. Large Decisions Most large decisions in life we take, we try to minimise the uncertainty, following textbook examples of taking decisions (All our knowledge about patterns, thinking, planning, education, process, execution, base rates, feedback, Overfitting, etc), we know the payoff is also … Continue reading Large vs Small decisions
Value Investor as a Portfolio Manager
Value Investor as a Portfolio Manager I’ll focus more about portfolio construction (so bear with some stock picking assumptions). Stock Analyst -Value Investing Let’s imagine you are good been value investor. While, picking stocks you are looking for opportunities where there is chaos (or in financial parlance volatility is high). Lets learn from an example: … Continue reading Value Investor as a Portfolio Manager
The Nuances of Valuation
Main inspiration from this write up came from a problem I was facing while valuing a financial company and prof Bakshi’s blog (https://fundooprofessor.com/2020/10/06/the-relevance-of-price-book/) . There are four basic Principles of any investment analysis: 1) Business Quality (Competitive Advantage, No Excessive tail risk)- This shows persistence and slightly less volatility in our future predictions vs completely … Continue reading The Nuances of Valuation
Mutual funds Sahi hai- Are they safer than equity?
These days its quite prevalent for people to think they do not invest in stocks, as they are risky, while they invest in mutual funds (which are safe). This is pure case of financial engineering or marketing buzzwords which fool people. This kind of thinking is bound to make one take wildly wrong expectations & … Continue reading Mutual funds Sahi hai- Are they safer than equity?
Why 15 year returns, even rolling returns are naive sometimes- What’s missing in Data
Few days back someone showed me a chart where he claimed that India almost outperforms China, claiming still does not know why are some investors so gungo about investing in China compared to India. I was smelling naive empiricism (using raw data not focusing on the generating process (distributions) to prove your points . I … Continue reading Why 15 year returns, even rolling returns are naive sometimes- What’s missing in Data
Exit Strategy 